The Fraud of the B2B Numbers Game
Why Lead Gen isn’t About Playing the Numbers Game, It’s about Playing the Human Game.
Hans Rosling was a medical doctor, professor of international health and well-known public educator. In his 2018 book “Factfulness” he debunks a lot of the generally held beliefs about the “state of the world” and despite his reliance on numbers, data and quantitative analysis he readily admits that “while the world cannot be understood without numbers, the world cannot be understood by the use of numbers alone.”
In the last 25 years it seems like we have tried to understand everything using numbers. We’ve reduced everything to an engineering problem. This has been especially true in business. We’ve seen the rise of the bean counters, the numbers driven MBA’s and the financialization of the western economy. No practice has been more affected than B2B sales and marketing. Despite all the application of numbers an older saying still holds true – “marketing leaders always knew they wasted half of their budgets…they just never knew which half.” The application of engineered thinking and numbers was supposed to answer this question. So, has it? Well…it has not. This is another example of our preference for extreme thinking where we’ve adopted engineering processes and overrated management science ideas while ignoring the realities of human behavior that make forecasting and predictions a fool’s play.
No worries, it isn’t over yet. We can use some number models and some probabilistic thinking to help overcome the challenge but first we can accept that this is not just a numbers game. For too long, the B2B community has been sold a lie: the idea that lead generation, for example, is just an engineering problem, that you can apply a mathematical formula to human behavior and expect reliable, predictable results. This mindset has led companies to waste vast amounts of time and resources on pouring “leads” into the top of the funnel, with the belief that the sheer volume will eventually yield deals. But here’s the truth: B2B lead gen isn’t—and never was—just a numbers game. Lead generation is about influencing human beings—who are illogical, unpredictable, and driven by emotions. The only way to truly improve results is by focusing on qualitative factors, particularly improving early-stage conversion rates through compelling, differentiated human interactions.
The Fraud of the B2B Numbers Game: Why Lead Gen is About More Than Just Math
We’ve heard it all for years - “if you pour enough leads into the top of the funnel, deals will magically fall out the bottom." This belief has shaped entire marketing strategies, pushed sales teams to the brink, and consumed countless resources. But here’s the truth: it’s a lie—a fraud that’s been perpetrated on the B2B community for far too long.
The reality is, B2B lead generation doesn’t fit neatly into an engineering problem. Human behavior, especially in a complex B2B buying process, is far too illogical and unpredictable to be governed solely by math. The numbers first approach fails because it ignores the most crucial element in sales: people. And if you don’t understand what makes people decide, no amount of lead volume will save you.
The Numbers Game NEVER Worked
The engineering mindset has been drilled into the DNA of B2B sales and marketing. It’s a simple formula—get 1,000 leads in at the top, watch them filter down through your sales funnel, and close a few deals at the bottom. At every stage, conversion rates chip away at your lead pool until you have just a tiny fraction left.
But let’s look at what those numbers really mean, using “generally accepted” percentages from the perpetrators of these myths - what used to be “Sirius Decisions” (now Forrester), Gartner, Aberdeen and the rest of the “brains trust.”
For each closed deal I need ~4 opptys. To get to 4 opptys I need ~ 12 SQL’s, maybe 10, maybe 14? To get there I need something like 3 x to 6x MQLs so let’s say 4.5x which means say 57 MQLs? And to get there I need say 380 MLs (that’s a ~15% conversion from ML to MQL which is generous.) So if a “first call” fits into the MQL category that means we need to conduct 57 “first calls” for every closed deal. We can argue and tinker with this math until doomsday, but the conclusion remains sobering—your sales process is based on inefficiency, where failure is the rule, not the exception and the numbers at the top are just too big
Doubling Down on Early-Stage Conversion Rates
Rather than focusing on lead volume, the key to unlocking real revenue growth lies in improving your early-stage conversion rates. Specifically, the most pivotal point in the entire sales funnel is the first conversion—the jump from the first conversation to the second. This is where human emotion and decision-making first meet your product or service. It’s where you must start to create preference. It’s NOT just a “get to know you” call.
By re-framing your thinking here, you could either half the number of MQLs or first calls you need, OR double the number of closes. By improving just one conversion metric, you can double—or even triple—your closed-won revenue without any increase in lead generation costs. It’s about getting more out of the leads you already have, rather than chasing an endless supply of new ones.
Being Compelling and Differentiated: The Key to Doubling Your Conversion Rate
So how do you improve that all-important first conversion rate? The answer lies in delivering value right from the start. To do that, you need to be both compelling and differentiated. You’re not just selling a product; you’re selling urgency and uniqueness. You must answer two critical questions in the mind of your prospect:
Why Now? (Compelling Reason to Act)
Human beings are driven by urgency. You need to show your prospects why they should act now rather than later. Maybe it’s a market shift, a looming competitive threat, or a time-sensitive opportunity. Whatever it is, it needs to resonate emotionally as well as logically. If there’s no urgency, the status quo remains. BUT, to do this right requires research, preparation, time and some daring.
Why Us? (Differentiation)
This is where most B2B companies fail. They sound like everyone else. But differentiation is critical. You need to demonstrate why your solution is unique, why it’s the best fit for their problem, and why you’re the best choice. Whether it’s through unique features, a proven track record, or an innovative approach, your prospect needs to believe that you—and only you—can solve their challenge. That’s about connecting solutions to business drivers. Spotting synergies between your organizations. And again, to do that right takes research, preparation, time and some daring.
When you combine urgency and differentiation, you create an interaction that resonates with the human beings on the other end of the conversation. It communicates the biggest factor - TRUST. This is how you double your first-to-second conversation conversion rate—by being compelling and differentiated in a way that speaks directly to the needs and emotions of your prospects.
Victims of another numbers game
So now the problem would be – how do I prepare my team to be compelling AND unique AND personalized during all those first calls? AI doesn’t care about big numbers. So instead of keeping blindly throwing numbers at the problem, apply (I guess) another form of numbers – those of AI. Specifically, a specialized sales a.i. like Shadow.
Breaking Free from the Numbers-First Fraud
The idea that lead generation is purely a numbers game ignores the human element at the heart of every buying decision. By shifting the focus away from lead volume and toward improving early-stage conversion rates through probabilistic thinking, B2B companies can finally unlock sustainable growth.
Here’s the bottom line: you don’t need more leads—you need better conversions. The companies that win in today’s B2B landscape are the ones that think probabilistically, cast off the fictions of the past, allow for human behavior and tailor their sales processes accordingly. Focus on answering "Why Now?" and "Why Us?"
It’s time to stop playing the numbers game and start playing the human game. Because in B2B sales, it’s the only game that matters
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